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The factors that will adversely impact the performance of the forecast model are:

Sales data is aggregated by week. This will reduce the granularity and resolution of the data, and make it harder to capture the daily patterns and variations in sales volume. The data scientist should request daily sales data from the source database to enable building a daily model, which will be more accurate and useful for the prediction task.

Sales data is missing zero entries for item sales. This will introduce bias and incompleteness in the data, and make it difficult to account for the items that have no demand or are out of stock. The data scientist should request that item sales data from the source database include zero entries to enable building the model, which will be more robust and realistic.

The other options are not valid because:

Detecting seasonality for the majority of stores will not be an issue, as sales data is highly consistent from week to week. Requesting categorical data to relate new stores with similar stores that have more historical data may not improve the model performance significantly, and may introduce unnecessary complexity and noise.

The sales data does not need to have more variance, as it reflects the actual demand and behavior of the customers. Requesting external sales data from other industries will not improve the model’s ability to generalize, but may introduce irrelevant and misleading information.

Only 100 MB of sales data is not a problem, as it is sufficient to train a forecast model with Amazon S3 and Amazon Forecast. Requesting 10 years of sales data will not provide much benefit, as it may contain outdated and obsolete information that does not reflect the current market trends and customer preferences.

References:

Amazon Forecast

Forecasting: Principles and Practice

Amazon SageMaker is a fully managed service that enables developers and data scientists to quickly and easily build, train, and deploy machine learning models at any scale. SageMaker provides a variety of tools and frameworks to support the entire machine learning workflow, from data preparation to model deployment.

One of the tools that SageMaker offers is the Amazon SageMaker Python SDK, which is a high-level library that simplifies the interaction with SageMaker APIs and services. The SageMaker Python SDK allows you to write code in Python and use popular frameworks such as TensorFlow, PyTorch, MXNet, and more. You can use the SageMaker Python SDK to create and manage SageMaker resources such as notebook instances, training jobs, endpoints, and feature store.

If you need to continue working on a TensorFlow project using SageMaker for training without Wi-Fi access, the best approach is to download the TensorFlow Docker container used in SageMaker from GitHub to your local environment, and use the SageMaker Python SDK to test the code. This way, you can ensure that your code is compatible with the SageMaker environment and avoid any potential issues when you upload your code to SageMaker and start the training job. You can also use the same code to deploy your model to a SageMaker endpoint when you have Wi-Fi access again.

To download the TensorFlow Docker container used in SageMaker, you can visit the SageMaker Docker GitHub repository and follow the instructions to build the image locally. You can also use the SageMaker Studio Image Build CLI to automate the process of building and pushing the Docker image to Amazon Elastic Container Registry (Amazon ECR). To use the SageMaker Python SDK to test the code, you can install the SDK on your local machine by following the installation guide. You can also refer to the TensorFlow documentation for more details on how to use the SageMaker Python SDK with TensorFlow.

References:

SageMaker Docker GitHub repository

SageMaker Studio Image Build CLI

SageMaker Python SDK installation guide

SageMaker Python SDK TensorFlow documentation

 The solution A will meet the requirements with the most operational efficiency because it uses Amazon SageMaker Data Wrangler, which is a service that simplifies the process of data preparation and feature engineering for machine learning. The solution A involves the following steps:

Use Amazon SageMaker Data Wrangler preconfigured transformations to explore feature transformations. Amazon SageMaker Data Wrangler provides a visual interface that allows data scientists to apply various transformations to their tabular data, such as encoding categorical features, scaling numerical features, imputing missing values, and more. Amazon SageMaker Data Wrangler also supports custom transformations using Python code or SQL queries1.

Use SageMaker Data Wrangler templates for visualization. Amazon SageMaker Data Wrangler also provides a set of templates that can generate visualizations of the data, such as histograms, scatter plots, box plots, and more. These visualizations can help data scientists to understand the distribution and characteristics of the data, and to compare the effects of different feature transformations1.

Export the feature processing workflow to a SageMaker pipeline for automation. Amazon SageMaker Data Wrangler can export the feature processing workflow as a SageMaker pipeline, which is a service that orchestrates and automates machine learning workflows. A SageMaker pipeline can run the feature processing steps as a preprocessing step, and then feed the output to a training step or an inference step. This can reduce the operational overhead of managing the feature processing workflow and ensure its consistency and reproducibility2.

The other options are not suitable because:

Option B: Using an Amazon SageMaker notebook instance to experiment with different feature transformations, saving the transformations to Amazon S3, using Amazon QuickSight for visualization, and packaging the feature processing steps into an AWS Lambda function for automation will incur more operational overhead than using Amazon SageMaker Data Wrangler. The data scientist will have to write the code for the feature transformations, the data storage, the data visualization, and the Lambda function. Moreover, AWS Lambda has limitations on the execution time, memory size, and package size, which may not be sufficient for complex feature processing tasks3.

Option C: Using AWS Glue Studio with custom code to experiment with different feature transformations, saving the transformations to Amazon S3, using Amazon QuickSight for visualization, and packaging the feature processing steps into an AWS Lambda function for automation will incur more operational overhead than using Amazon SageMaker Data Wrangler. AWS Glue Studio is a visual interface that allows data engineers to create and run extract, transform, and load (ETL) jobs on AWS Glue. However, AWS Glue Studio does not provide preconfigured transformations or templates for feature engineering or data visualization. The data scientist will have to write custom code for these tasks, as well as for the Lambda function. Moreover, AWS Glue Studio is not integrated with SageMaker pipelines, and it may not be optimized for machine learning workflows4.

Option D: Using Amazon SageMaker Data Wrangler preconfigured transformations to experiment with different feature transformations, saving the transformations to Amazon S3, using Amazon QuickSight for visualization, packaging each feature transformation step into a separate AWS Lambda function, and using AWS Step Functions for workflow automation will incur more operational overhead than using Amazon SageMaker Data Wrangler. The data scientist will have to create and manage multiple AWS Lambda functions and AWS Step Functions, which can increase the complexity and cost of the solution. Moreover, AWS Lambda and AWS Step Functions may not be compatible with SageMaker pipelines, and they may not be optimized for machine learning workflows5.

References:

1: Amazon SageMaker Data Wrangler

2: Amazon SageMaker Pipelines

3: AWS Lambda

4: AWS Glue Studio

5: AWS Step Functions

 A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a model evaluation technique that can be used to understand how different classification thresholds will impact the model’s performance. A ROC curve plots the true positive rate (TPR) against the false positive rate (FPR) for various values of the classification threshold. The TPR, also known as sensitivity or recall, is the proportion of positive instances that are correctly classified as positive. The FPR, also known as the fall-out, is the proportion of negative instances that are incorrectly classified as positive. A ROC curve can show the trade-off between the TPR and the FPR for different thresholds, and help the Machine Learning Specialist to select the optimal threshold that maximizes the TPR and minimizes the FPR. A ROC curve can also be used to compare the performance of different models by calculating the area under the curve (AUC), which is a measure of how well the model can distinguish between the positive and negative classes. A higher AUC indicates a better model